Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 626

   Mesoscale Discussion 0626
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Missouri Region

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 200...

   Valid 302330Z - 010100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 200 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some tornado threat exists with small supercells across
   southeast Missouri region this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave trough is ejecting northeast across the
   Ozarks. This feature appears partly responsible for maintaining the
   northern end of a larger MCS that is propagating across southern MO.
   Low-level warm advection is focused into this region and scattered
   small supercells have developed ahead of the primary MCS precip
   shield from Texas County to Madison County. This activity is lifting
   northeast toward the southwestern portions of ww200. Latest radar
   data supports this with with several updrafts exhibiting rotation
   and marginally severe hail. A brief weak tornado threat is possible
   with these supercells as they advance downstream.

   ..Darrow.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37669205 38429075 38008949 37059009 36769164 37669205 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN