Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 624

   Mesoscale Discussion 0624
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of south Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302231Z - 010000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail and wind risk will persist for
   another couple hours. Current thinking is that the overall severe
   risk will remain too isolated for a watch.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated/discrete supercell has developed within a
   warm, moist, and uncapped environment across south TX. Given weak
   forcing for ascent, overall storm coverage is expected to remain
   isolated. However, around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and an elongated/straight
   hodograph (sampled by EWX VWP) will continue to support an isolated
   supercell or two -- capable of producing severe hail and locally
   damaging gusts. This threat should persist for another couple hours,
   before the boundary layer nocturnally stabilizes. Given the isolated
   nature of the threat, a watch is not expected.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28169854 28399911 28809920 29279902 29679854 29929798
               29879753 29299736 28419790 28169854 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN