Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 620

   Mesoscale Discussion 0620
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0232 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Areas affected...far eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301932Z - 302030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms producing large
   hail and strong gusts are possible through the afternoon into early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storm coverage is increasing this afternoon beneath the
   upper trough from eastern NM. Storms should continue to develop and
   shift east across the southern TX Panhandle and South Plains
   vicinity into early evening. Cold temperatures aloft are supporting
   a plume of very steep midlevel lapse rates. Despite modest boundary
   layer moisture (dewpoints generally in the 50s F), the steep lapse
   rates are supporting weak instability up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
   Increasing winds with height are resulting in elongated/straight
   hodographs. This activity is occurring on the edge of stronger
   effective shear, but at least transient organized, strong cells are
   expected. Isolated large hail may accompany this activity.
   Additionally, strong heating and steepened low-level lapse rates
   could support sporadic gusty winds. While a watch is not currently
   anticipated, trends will be monitored for an increasing hail risk
   over the next couple hours.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35070201 35020106 34730031 34230004 33880006 33280015
               32920047 32800135 32780165 32880259 33090320 33670355
               34350338 34710317 35070201 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN