Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 619

   Mesoscale Discussion 0619
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central and eastern TX into northwest
   LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301717Z - 301915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential is increasing across
   portions of central and eastern Texas early this afternoon.
   Convective initiation expected in the next 1-2 hours with all severe
   hazards possible.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted across the discussion area
   to the southeast of a slowly southeastward progressing line/MCS
   across North TX. Scattered cloudiness has allowed for stronger
   heating, with temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s F at midday. A
   very moist airmass with dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s F resides
   beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, resulting in MLCAPE
   increasing to around 1500-2500 J/kg. This should support robust
   updrafts. Supercell vertical wind profiles and effective shear
   values greater than 35 kt will support organized convection capable
   of all severe hazards, including a few tornadoes (a couple of which
   could be strong), damaging gusts, and isolated hail. Supercells are
   expected ahead of the oozing line of convection through the
   afternoon. With time, linear convection may also intensify and surge
   east. A tornado watch will likely be needed within the next hour or
   so for parts of the discussion area.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31769817 32139747 32329582 33009362 32869316 32529311
               32089339 31609404 30949523 30519611 30599725 30709781
               30919825 31239836 31769817 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN