Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 618

   Mesoscale Discussion 0618
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1121 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northeast OK into northwest AR

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

   Valid 301621Z - 301745Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

   SUMMARY...A line of storms will move east/northeast into portions of
   northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas over the next few hours.
   Sporadic strong to severe gusts may accompany this activity. Trends
   are being monitored for possible watch issuance or extension of WW
   197.

   DISCUSSION...A mature MCS is currently shifting east across eastern
   OK and north TX late this morning. Individual bowing segments within
   the broader line of storms may lift more northeast with time into
   portions of northeast OK and northwest AR through early afternoon.
   Filtered heating is occurring across northern AR where thinner cloud
   cover is noted. Generally low 60s F dewpoints are supporting modest
   instability, and further destabilization will likely remain limited
   given somewhat poor lapse rates with northward extent. Nevertheless,
   organized convection moving into this environment will continue to
   pose a risk for mainly damaging gusts, though a brief spin-up also
   could occur with any line-embedded mesovortex that develops. Tornado
   Watch 197 may be extended northward, or a new watch could be issued
   depending on convective trends.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35589576 36169533 36209525 36479462 36489365 36489282
               36399254 35829245 35309256 35219275 35199302 35219430
               35289530 35309566 35399576 35589576 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN