Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 617

   Mesoscale Discussion 0617
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0907 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Areas affected...North TX into far southeast OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301407Z - 301600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A slow-moving bow will continue to move east across the
   Red River vicinity of southeast OK and northeast TX the next few
   hours. Sporadic strong gusts may occur in the short term.

   DISCUSSION...An organized bow extending from south-central OK into
   north TX this morning will continue to slowly shift east the
   remainder of the morning. Some occasional intensification with
   embedded cells, especially on the southern portions of the bow, as
   been noted over the past hour. A gust to 47 kt was most recently
   measured in Wise County TX. Downstream from this activity, upper 60s
   F dewpoints are in place and some filtered heating into far
   northeast TX is likely to occur, through much of the area will be
   cloudy with limited heating the next few hours. Nevertheless, 12z
   RAOB from FWD indicated very steep midlevel lapse rates greater than
   8 C/km above an EML around 700 mb, supporting modest MLCAPE. 

   While severe potential should remain somewhat limited in the short
   term, a gradual increase in severe potential is expected into
   midday. Favorable vertical shear will support rotating cells within
   the line and perhaps developing ahead of the line later today. A new
   watch will likely be needed by midday, through timing is a bit
   uncertain given ongoing convection and a slowly destabilizing
   downstream airmass.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33109828 33789723 34219658 34409574 34459510 34399474
               34209459 33349460 32679526 32389609 32219721 32349776
               32609813 33109828 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN