Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 616

   Mesoscale Discussion 0616
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0424 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

   Areas affected...northwest Texas into the Red River Valley and
   across southern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195...196...

   Valid 300924Z - 301130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 195, 196
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain likely over parts of northwest into
   northern Texas, including the Red River Valley and into far southern
   Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...The 850 theta-e advection regime persists early this
   morning across TX and OK, fueling episodic MCSs. The primary
   convective system currently extends from far southwest OK southward
   into northwest TX, with strong reflectivity and respectable echo
   tops. Severe gusts are likely occurring with this line, as seen in
   recent Knox City observation with 69 mph reported. This line of
   storms is straddling the east-west stationary front, and extra lift
   near this boundary may support strengthening as it moves eastward
   this morning.

   Isolated storms well north of the boundary into southern OK have
   produced gusts in excess of 50 kt as well, despite the more isolated
   nature.

   ..Jewell.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32190032 32889989 33569959 34019951 34579945 34859940
               35279587 35179549 34669528 33969552 33509635 32639841
               32190032 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN