Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 613

   Mesoscale Discussion 0613
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0909 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of south-central Oklahoma and north-central
   Texas along the Red River

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 194...

   Valid 300209Z - 300345Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk of embedded tornadoes and severe wind gusts
   continues across Tornado Watch 194.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS with embedded supercell structures has evolved
   over parts of south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas, which
   is tracking east-northeastward at 40-50 kt. This activity is
   tracking along an east/west-oriented stationary boundary, with
   middle/upper 60s dewpoints along/south of the boundary. The rich
   boundary-layer moisture, focused convergence along the boundary, and
   strengthening low-level jet will continue to favor the maintenance
   of this MCS with eastward extent. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear
   oriented perpendicular to the gust front (sampled by VWP) and
   enhanced SRH along/north of the boundary will support embedded
   supercell structures and mesovorticies capable of producing severe
   wind gusts and tornadoes. Along the southern flank of the MCS,
   semi-discrete storms will pose a risk of large hail and a couple
   tornadoes as well.

   ..Weinman.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33879848 34579840 34819811 34899760 34859683 34639664
               34089658 33259696 33009742 32879815 32869899 32989923
               33279919 33879848 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN