Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 612

   Mesoscale Discussion 0612
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0842 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190...

   Valid 300142Z - 300345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 190
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe risk has become increasingly isolated across
   the Texas South Plains in WW190. However, severe potential should
   once again increase into the overnight hours (03-06Z time frame).

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier severe storms across the TX
   South Plains, the severe risk has become increasingly isolated --
   with a couple small/discrete storms capable of producing severe hail
   in the near-term. As a result, current thinking is that WW190 will
   be allowed to expire across this region at 02Z. However, as a 40-50
   kt low-level jet develops and impinges on a stationary boundary
   draped across the area tonight, another round of thunderstorms is
   expected in the 03-06Z time frame. Steep deep-layer lapse rates
   (sampled by the MAF 00Z sounding) and 50-60 kt of effective shear
   will support clusters of severe storms (some potentially elevated)
   capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Convective and
   environmental trends will be monitored for the need for an
   additional watch.

   ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31960237 32660215 33620168 34070123 34210072 34090015
               33710000 32620010 31440049 31120076 31040121 31130192
               31370229 31960237 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN