Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 605

   Mesoscale Discussion 0605
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0141 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

   Areas affected...western PA/NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 291841Z - 292045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
   develop this afternoon and persist into the evening. Damaging gusts
   will be the main hazard accompanying this activity. A watch may be
   needed in the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Persistent southwesterly low-level flow has allowed
   surface dewpoints to increase by 2-6 degrees F over the past 3 hours
   across much of the region, with values now in the upper 50s to low
   60s F. Additionally, strong heating into the 80s has resulted in
   steepened low-level lapse rates. Modest instability also is
   overspreading the region, and a large area of cumulus is evident in
   visible satellite imagery. Convection is expected to develop across
   western NY over the next couple of hours ahead of the southeast
   sagging cold front. Additional development may occur into western
   PA. Additionally, an eastward propagating severe thunderstorm
   cluster over central Ohio is also expected to persist. This cluster
   is tracking east/northeast around 50-60 kt as should arrive at the
   OH/PA border by 21z. 

   Unidirectional vertical wind profiles will continue to favor
   clusters/line segments. Steep low-level lapse rates and a mixed
   boundary layer will support damaging gusts. Modest midlevel lapse
   rates could support isolated hail if any more discrete cells can
   develop and be maintained. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed
   in the next 1-2 hours for portions of the MCD area.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   39957972 40048059 41688036 42048003 43187839 43477743
               43597659 43597614 43457579 43147542 42757569 41277732
               39957972 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN