Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 604

   Mesoscale Discussion 0604
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

   Areas affected...Permian Basin into Texas South Plains...western
   North Texas...parts of southern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 291810Z - 292015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Supercell development appears likely in the next 2-3
   hours. Large/very-large hail and severe gusts are the primary
   concerns. Tornadoes will be possible particularly in western North
   Texas. A watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A complex surface pattern exists across the southern
   Plains this afternoon. A synoptic cold front has pushed through much
   of the High Plains and extends northeastward through
   southwest/central Oklahoma. An outflow boundary is also evident near
   the Red River in Oklahoma from an earlier complex of thunderstorms.
   Dewpoints of mid/upper 60s F have reach into western North Texas
   near the intersection of these boundaries, with a weak moisture
   gradient to the southwest until a more obvious dryline near Fort
   Stockton.

   Though capping still remains, cumulus towers have begun to develop
   in the Rolling Plains per day cloud phase imagery. Additionally,
   convection has also developed in the Davis Mountains and is moving
   northeast. With continued heating, storm coverage should increase in
   the next 2-3 hours along and south of the cold front/outflow
   boundary. Model guidance has been rather consistent in the preferred
   zone of initiation being within the Rolling Plains first. All severe
   hazards would be possible given the expected supercellular storm
   mode. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are the most likely
   hazards. The tornado threat is less certain. With the cold front
   continuing to shift slowly southward, there is potential for storms
   to become undercut. Low-level shear will also not be particularly
   strong until the low-level jet increase several hours from now. That
   being said, there is a mesoscale zone in western North Texas near
   the cold front/outflow boundary intersection where easterly surface
   winds and greater moisture will promote a greater tornado threat.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 04/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31690192 32330237 33410197 34419917 34819796 34799772
               34499742 33989737 33329854 32869934 31490131 31690192 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN