Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 596

   Mesoscale Discussion 0596
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1133 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

   Areas affected...Texas South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 290433Z - 290530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail may be noted with developing
   thunderstorms. The need for a severe thunderstorm watch is
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Southeasterly low-level flow is increasing across west
   TX late this evening. Latest VWP data from MAF supports this with
   50kt 1km flow and strong 0-3km SRH. Latest diagnostic data suggests
   boundary-layer moisture has surged back into the TX South Plains and
   a sharp moisture demarcation appears to be partly responsible for
   recent uptick in convection from near INK to Lynn County. Hail is
   noted along this line of storms which should gradually
   spread/develop northeast as LLJ is expected to remain focused into
   this region. Given the linear nature of this convection, current
   thinking is hail should remain somewhat marginal. Even so, isolated
   hail could exceed severe levels.

   ..Darrow/Gleason.. 04/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32430316 34450069 33889975 32740133 31860310 32430316 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN