Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 592

   Mesoscale Discussion 0592
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0713 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of northwest Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...

   Valid 290013Z - 290145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells will continue to pose a risk of very large
   hail, with an increasing tornado risk into this evening (00-02Z).

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete supercell clusters are tracking
   northeastward across northwest Texas this evening. These storms are
   evolving east of a dryline bulge, where temperatures have warmed
   into the 80s amid upper 60s to around 70 dewpoints -- beneath steep
   midlevel lapse rates. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per VWP
   data), characterized by a long/generally straight hodograph, should
   continue to favor a risk of very large hail. However, as the
   low-level jet increases over the next couple hours, clockwise-curved
   low-level hodographs should expand, favoring an increasing tornado
   risk -- especially as storms track northeastward toward the Red
   River through 02Z. Around of 300-400 m2/s2 effective SRH will
   conditionally support a strong tornado with any established
   right-moving supercells that evolve.

   ..Weinman.. 04/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32470016 32680034 33790018 34189991 34299959 34229923
               34049892 33689885 33009895 32579931 32429964 32470016 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN