Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 555

   Mesoscale Discussion 0555
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle into
   western/central/northeast OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 171...

   Valid 250451Z - 250615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 171
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat will persist into the overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...Three long-lived supercells are ongoing late tonight
   across the northeast TX Panhandle, while convection in OK has
   evolved into more of a quasi-linear mode, though a couple of
   embedded supercells persist across western OK. While MLCINH is
   increasing region-wide, the best relative storm environment remains
   across the TX Panhandle into extreme western OK, where MLCAPE in
   excess of 1500 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear will continue to
   support supercell potential into the overnight hours. While ongoing
   storms will struggle to remain surface-based with time, a
   substantial nocturnal strengthening of the low-level jet (as noted
   on the KAMA VWP) may support some tornado potential with ongoing
   supercells in the short term. Otherwise, large hail and localized
   severe gusts will remain a threat for as long as vigorous convection
   persists overnight. 

   Farther northeast, a small bowing segment has evolved across
   north-central OK, which is moving eastward along a weak surface
   boundary. The longevity of this bowing segment may be limited by
   diminishing downstream instability and increasing MLCINH, but a
   severe-wind threat could reach portions of northeast OK with time
   overnight.

   ..Dean.. 04/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35920128 35779951 36199798 36549747 36599668 36279616
               35869621 35429676 35109813 34869967 34860029 34930107
               35000139 35250152 35770162 35920128 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN