Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 554

   Mesoscale Discussion 0554
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1035 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...Northwest into central OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

   Valid 250335Z - 250500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some severe threat will spread east/southeast late
   tonight, though the longevity of the threat is uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...After being confined to northwest OK for much of the
   evening, an long-lived storm cluster has shown some
   east-southeastward acceleration over the last hour. In the short
   term, this cluster may continue to pose a threat of hail, localized
   severe gusts, and possibly a tornado, as it moves through a
   moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. However,
   increasing MLCINH with time and southeastward extent renders
   uncertainty regarding the longevity of the severe threat into the
   overnight hours. 

   There may be some tendency for the ongoing cluster to propagate
   eastward along a weakly confluent surface boundary, with some
   potential for redevelopment of convection along/behind the trailing
   outflow. There is also some potential for ongoing convection in the
   TX Panhandle to eventually spread eastward into
   west-central/northwest OK, with at least an isolated severe threat.

   ..Dean.. 04/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36389957 36849814 36839746 36589707 36059714 35599765
               35489826 35439880 35339944 35319976 35479992 35629996
               35919993 36149995 36389957 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN