Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 551

   Mesoscale Discussion 0551
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the TX South Plains

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 167...

   Valid 250044Z - 250215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 167 continues.

   SUMMARY...A localized threat of potentially strong tornadoes has
   evolved to the east/northeast of Lubbock, with very large to giant
   hail also possible.

   DISCUSSION...An intense supercell over Floyd and Motley Counties in
   Texas has propagated southeastward into an increasingly moist
   boundary layer, accompanied by a notable increase in low-level
   mesocyclone strength. Rotational velocity and environmental
   characteristics suggest a strong tornado may have occurred within
   the last 15-30 minutes. The presence of strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE
   greater than 3000 J/kg per the modified 00Z AMA sounding), favorable
   deep-layer shear, and enlarging low-level hodographs suggest a
   localized threat for strong tornadoes may continue with this cell,
   and also potentially with an intense supercell currently over Crosby
   County. 

   Greater than 4 inch hail has also been reported in Floyd County, and
   a threat for very large to giant hail will likely persist for as
   long as the ongoing supercells remain semi-discrete this evening.

   ..Dean.. 04/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33640149 34110096 34170029 33770008 33370038 33080068
               33060144 33640149 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN