Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 549

   Mesoscale Discussion 0549
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...TX Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos region

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168...

   Valid 242356Z - 250130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 168
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells with large to very large hail remain possible
   this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing at 2345
   UTC across the TX Permian Basin vicinity. Despite generally modest
   large-scale forcing, strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg)
   and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support splitting
   supercells within the weakly capped environment through early
   evening. Large to very large hail will likely be the primary hazard,
   especially with any persistent left-movers, while strong to locally
   severe outflow winds will also be possible in the vicinity of the
   strongest cells. Increasing MLCINH should result in a gradual
   decrease in the severe threat later this evening.

   ..Dean.. 04/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31510158 30000222 29290319 29480348 29810354 30190351
               31720303 32870252 32940190 32890166 32470149 31610153
               31510158 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN