Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 544

   Mesoscale Discussion 0544
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242045Z - 242245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Some instances of severe hail and gusty winds possible
   this afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing near and south of the
   Denver metro this afternoon. Moisture in this region is limited,
   with dew points in the upper 40s to 50s. Nonetheless, ongoing
   convection will have potential to produce instances of mainly
   sub-severe hail given steep lapse rates and cooling aloft. 

   As this development and any additional development shifts further
   south and east, it will enter a region with temperatures in the low
   to mid 70s and dew points in the low to mid-50s near the CO/KS
   border MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 30-35
   kts is observed in surface objective analysis as of 20z. This
   environment may support some increase in coverage and intensity,
   with better potential for severe hail and wind. Trends will be
   monitored for potential watch issuance this evening.

   ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37030326 37460387 37930437 38590496 38880524 39470542
               39900539 40100510 40270480 40410445 40480405 40480392
               40030306 39660264 39290235 38850211 38370200 37610203
               37200209 37040243 37020316 37030326 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN