Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 539

   Mesoscale Discussion 0539
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

   Areas affected...Central and North Texas...Southern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241137Z - 241400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat may continue across parts of central and
   north Texas this morning. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be the
   primary threats. The potential for weather watch issuance is low.

   DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong
   thunderstorms located from southern Oklahoma into north Texas, with
   a linear cluster extending southward into central Texas. The storms
   are located near a moist axis where surface dewpoints are in the mid
   to upper 60s F. Across the moist airmass, the RAP is estimating
   MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. The instability, combined
   with large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough and warm
   advection are supporting the storms. In addition, the FWS WSR-88D
   VWP has 0-6 km shear has 30 to 35 knots with some directional shear
   in the low to mid-levels. This shear environment should be enough to
   continue an isolated wind-damage and hail threat. The severe threat
   may increase locally over the next hour or two, as the cells to the
   south merge with the line to the north.

   ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/24/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31449841 31309802 31359717 31729662 32439624 33209623
               33909662 34159727 33959789 33739824 33409878 32989907
               32479894 32059874 31449841 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN