Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 527

   Mesoscale Discussion 0527
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2025

   Areas affected...far southwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231914Z - 232115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Risk for gusty winds and large hail possible this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is observed across the Davis
   Mountains and ahead of the surface dryline across far western Texas.
   Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s which has led to
   weakening of MLCIN across the region. Convective initiation should
   occur in the next 1-2 hours. Ahead of the dryline, MLCAPE around
   1000-2000 J/kg  with deep layer shear around 35-40 kts. This will
   support supercells capable of large hail (some very large) and
   damaging winds, given steep lapse rates around 8-9 C/km. A watch may
   be needed in the coming hour.

   ..Thornton/Hart.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30330471 30990414 31950309 32260227 32150132 31850105
               31120102 30030192 29950220 29710318 29590373 29610402
               29750447 30330471 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN