Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 523

   Mesoscale Discussion 0523
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1057 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159...160...

   Valid 230357Z - 230530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159, 160
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe gusts may accompany an organized MCS over the next
   few hours.

   DISCUSSION...An MCS has organized a couple of hours ago, and the
   KCDS ASOS measured a southeasterly gust of 47 kts within the
   trailing precipitation region, indicating that a localized severe
   gust threat may be increasing. This is in agreement with the last
   several runs of Warn-on-forecast, which has depicted a severe wind
   swath with this MCS along/near the Red River. Given residual MLCAPE
   around 2000 J/kg and increasing WAA with a strengthening nocturnal
   low-level jet, this MCS may persist, perhaps with severe gusts for
   at least a few more hours. Given the approaching expiration time of
   the ongoing severe thunderstorm watches, a downstream watch may be
   needed pending favorable convective trends against increasing
   MLCINH.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33870160 34440075 34619957 34189851 33549832 33139844
               32899918 32939998 33060065 33160093 33420148 33870160 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN