Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 519

   Mesoscale Discussion 0519
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0524 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

   Areas affected...Much of western Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159...

   Valid 222224Z - 230000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 159
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 159. Large hail and severe gusts are the main threats.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed ahead of the dryline
   across western TX, some with a history of severe wind and hail. At
   the moment, the strongest storms are progressing across southern
   parts of the TX Panhandle and the Trans Pecos region. The supercell
   across Pecos County TX has rapidly intensified in the last hour and
   has been exhibiting deviant rightward motion. This storm has the
   best chance at producing a tornado over the next hour or so.

   Storms may continue to develop across western TX, with storm mergers
   potentially supporting cold pool intensification and perhaps a
   greater severe gust threat this evening.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30760348 33230296 34600199 35090144 35310073 35320000
               34139980 32249997 30740008 29930048 29730111 29730173
               29970250 30760348 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN