Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 500

   Mesoscale Discussion 0500
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

   Areas affected...Southwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153...

   Valid 200854Z - 201100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat is expected to gradually move
   eastward across southwest Missouri over the next couple of hours.
   The threat should become more isolated as it eventually approaches
   the eastern edge of WW 153. New weather watch issuance to the east
   of the ongoing watch appears unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from
   Springfield, Missouri shows a continuous line of strong to severe
   storms located from far northwest Arkansas into far southwest
   Missouri. Ahead of the line, the RAP is analyzing an axis of weak
   instability with MUCAPE in the 250 to 500 J/kg range. The RAP
   forecast sounding at Springfield has effective shear of 50 to 55
   knots. This will likely support a severe threat with the line
   segment as it gradually moves eastward over the next couple of
   hours. Severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. The threat
   should become more isolated as it moves into even weaker instability
   further east.

   ..Broyles.. 04/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36529255 36519341 36559386 36809409 37249387 37829339
               37959271 37619209 36789212 36529255 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH