Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 487

   Mesoscale Discussion 0487
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0629 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northern Texas into southern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 192329Z - 200100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over northern Texas into
   southern Oklahoma. All severe hazards are possible, though tornado
   potential is largely dependent on efficient surface-based inflow. A
   WW issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Increasing WAA and low-level southerly flow is underway
   over the Red River vicinity, with the intensity and coverage of
   storms also increasing with the approach of a 500 mb jet streak. A
   supercell structure has recently intensified and produced a tornado
   along a baroclinic boundary in Jack County, TX, and this storm
   (along with others that can intensify) are preceded by the terminus
   of a 30+ kt southerly 850 mb jet. In addition to increasing buoyancy
   downstream of these storms, low-level shear is also increasing, with
   the FWS VAD depicting modestly curved and elongated hodographs. Any
   storms that can mature and progress in this environment will be
   capable of producing severe hail/wind. Additional tornadoes may also
   be possible if storms can remain surface-based, and maintain
   relatively unimpeded inflow.

   Given the increasing severe threat, a WW issuance may be needed
   soon.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 04/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33059786 33679790 34429772 34829706 34899629 34709569
               34069537 33409553 32909601 32549669 32369716 32309785
               32689796 33059786 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN