Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 475

   Mesoscale Discussion 0475
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1101 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

   Areas affected...south-central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143...

   Valid 190401Z - 190530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest severe wind threat over the next few hours
   will be across southern Missouri where a bowing line of storms has
   developed.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across southern Missouri has
   recently started bowing out east of Springfield, MO. Where this
   bowing segment is more favorably oriented to the deep-layer flow and
   along/ahead of the surface front, a greater damaging wind threat
   will exist. The intensity/longevity of this threat remains
   questionable as MUCAPE is lower across southeast Missouri
   (~1000-1200 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis). However, the low-level jet
   is intensifying (as sampled by the LZK and PAH VWP) and may be
   sufficient to maintain a severe wind threat for a few more hours
   into portions of southeast Missouri.

   ..Bentley.. 04/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36909328 37079331 37299299 37569286 37759180 37779033
               37499019 37059102 36859233 36859298 36909328 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN