Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 473

   Mesoscale Discussion 0473
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0835 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

   Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...northwest Arkansas...and
   southern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 190135Z - 190300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase late this evening
   and into the overnight period, including the potential for
   supercells.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop along the front in
   northeast Oklahoma this evening. Expect storm coverage to increase
   along the front through the evening and into the overnight period as
   the low-level jet strengthens. Elevated hail will be the primary
   threat north of the front with the potential for large hail,
   damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado along and south of the
   front. However, the threat for storms along and on the warm side of
   the boundary remains questionable given the boundary orientation and
   storm motion. 

   A severe thunderstorm watch may need to be issued to address this
   threat continuing into the overnight period.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35339580 36449493 37259421 38439240 38469125 38099083
               37379070 36399092 35689220 34999337 34739426 34819504
               34889562 35339580 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN