Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 472

   Mesoscale Discussion 0472
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0804 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

   Areas affected...Much of Oklahoma and parts of Northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 190104Z - 190230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop this
   evening with some surface based storm threat possible later this
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...An expansive cirrus shield has limited surface based
   instability this afternoon/evening across much of the warm sector
   which has limited the diurnal threat. However, north of this front,
   some elevated convection has started to develop from the eastern
   Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. This convection is
   currently quite weak which is not surprising given the weak
   instability and the capped environment farther southeast (00Z OUN
   RAOB) where better instability does exist. Continued mid-level
   cooling and 850mb moistening (associated with the strengthening
   low-level jet) will lead to an increasingly favorable environment
   for elevated convection this evening. Strong shear will support
   supercells with a a primary hazard of large hail. 

   Later tonight, initially elevated convection across parts of
   northwest Texas may eventually move into a continually moistening
   boundary layer across southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. These
   storms may pose a greater threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps a
   tornado in addition to the large hail threat.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/19/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33160000 33720021 35110042 35869993 36559822 36979545
               35979502 34759561 33379741 33159926 33160000 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN