Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 457

   Mesoscale Discussion 0457
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

   Areas affected...southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171137Z - 171300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat may persist for a
   couple more hours, but should diminish during the mid-morning.

   DISCUSSION...Early morning convection has largely consolidated into
   a cluster along the KS/MO border. This activity will probably
   continue southeastward into southwest MO over the next couple hours.
   While the leading cell in the cluster has lost its deep core, it may
   produce a swath of strong gusts. Upstream embedded cell has yielded
   marginally severe hail and may undergo a similar evolution to the
   lead cell. This activity will be moving into a progressively drier
   air mass in MO. In conjunction with diurnal weakening of the
   low-level jet, this cluster should weaken by late morning.

   ..Grams/Thompson.. 04/17/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38439392 38519358 38259276 37929215 37509210 37169227
               36929243 36939362 37069420 37739472 38149467 38439392 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN