Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 452

   Mesoscale Discussion 0452
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025

   Areas affected...Northern and central Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 139...

   Valid 150040Z - 150215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 139
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The primary corridor for large hail and damaging winds
   will exist along the southern edge of WW 139 in central Virginia.
   Farther north, isolated strong/damaging winds remain possible.

   DISCUSSION...The primary corridor of severe risk will likely be
   within parts of central Virginia this evening. A supercell currently
   in Nelson County will be capable of large hail and damaging winds.
   This lead supercell has shown a tendency to move more east-northeast
   the last half hour, suggesting it may be transitioning to being
   slightly elevated. Even so, MRMS data suggests large hail is
   occurring. Other strong to severe storms are training behind the
   lead supercell and will also pose a threat for large hail and
   damaging winds.

   In northern Virginia, temperatures have diabatically cooled as broad
   area of precipitation has overspread the area. Some elevated
   instability still remains and the KRLX VAD showed 35-45 kts of flow
   behind the passing convection. With the Dulles 00Z observed sounding
   showing 7 C/km lapse rates and a dry sub-cloud layer, a
   strong/damaging gust could still occur where any convective cores
   develop.

   ..Wendt.. 04/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37828011 38817934 39067924 39127892 38897781 38797749
               38417729 37537725 37427730 37307752 37207799 37237843
               37658017 37828011 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN