Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 384

   Mesoscale Discussion 0384
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0639 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas. northwest Mississippi...and far
   southwest Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...109...

   Valid 032339Z - 040115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107, 109 continues.

   SUMMARY...The primary risk appears to be large hail. While much less
   likely, damaging winds and/or a brief tornado cannot be entirely
   ruled out on a very localized basis.

   DISCUSSION...Several elevated supercell clusters are tracking
   northeastward across portions of southern AR and northwest MS -- to
   the north of a stationary boundary draped across northern MS into
   far southern AR. The LZK/NQA VWPs continue to sample a very
   elongated/straight hodograph, with around 60-70 kt of effective
   shear north of the boundary. This, along with steep midlevel lapse
   rates atop a cool/stable boundary layer (yielding 2500-3000 J/kg
   MUCAPE), will continue to favor elevated supercell structures
   capable of producing large hail (generally upwards of 2 inches in
   diameter). 

   Given the elevated nature of these storms, and limited potential for
   northward movement of the boundary and related warm sector, the
   tornado and damaging-wind risks appears low. With that said, if
   these storms can intercept any localized pockets of surface-based
   instability north of the boundary, large low-level streamwise
   vorticity would support a tornado risk.

   ..Weinman.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34169246 34889111 35449017 35538974 35448937 35118910
               34738929 34109045 33449220 33529259 33849263 34169246 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN