Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 383

   Mesoscale Discussion 0383
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0607 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...

   Valid 032307Z - 040000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.

   SUMMARY...Enhanced tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours across
   portions of middle Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells is ongoing across portions of
   middle Tennessee, and both of these cells are along a synoptic
   stationary boundary draped generally east-northeast to
   west-southwest across the area. These storms are likely
   surface-based with air ahead of the boundary sufficiently unstable
   (1000 J/kg MLCAPE per mesoanalysis) and with strong low-level shear
   (20 kts of 0-1 km shear per regional VWPs). Additionally, the
   southern of these storms has a history of producing tornadoes and
   significant (2"+) hail. Thus, these storms have enhanced tornado
   potential over the next 1-2 hours. Surface moisture decreases to the
   east, and this may limit the eastward extent of the tornado risk
   with these storms.

   ..Supinie.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   35518559 35138635 34868732 34908758 35088772 35398779
               35778790 36008769 36308706 36468627 36318581 35988547
               35518559 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN