Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 382

   Mesoscale Discussion 0382
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast TX into northwest LA and southern AR

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 109...

   Valid 032043Z - 032215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 109 continues.

   SUMMARY...Storm intensification is possible by late afternoon.
   Tornadic supercells remain possible near/south of the front, in
   addition to a threat of severe hail and wind.

   DISCUSSION...Some increase in deep convection has been noted across
   northeast TX, along and south/east of an outflow-reinforced surface
   front draped from northern MS into southern AR and northeast TX. The
   environment remains quite favorable for tornadic supercells within
   the warm sector in this region, with the 19Z SHV sounding depicting
   MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, 60 kt of effective shear, and 0-1 km
   SRH of greater than 200 m2/s2. However, in the absence of stronger
   large-scale ascent, it remains uncertain if any supercells can
   mature prior to moving to the cool side of the surface front. Any
   sustained surface-based supercells could pose some threat of
   significant (EF2+) tornadoes within this environment. Otherwise, a
   threat for severe hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter)
   and damaging wind will accompany any supercells (surface-based or
   elevated) within this regime.

   ..Dean.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32569276 31519396 31329450 31539507 32019522 32349522
               32889512 33549398 34309154 33689144 33229151 33009203
               32939217 32569276 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN