Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 381

   Mesoscale Discussion 0381
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of West Virginia and northern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032031Z - 032300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms moving into West Virginia may pose a threat of
   severe weather this afternoon and evening.  Convective trends will
   continue to be monitored, although a watch appears unlikely at this
   time.

   DISCUSSION...Despite midlevel height rises across the area,
   low-level warm-air advection continues to support thunderstorm
   development across eastern Kentucky.  The storms are expected to
   continue moving eastward across West Virginia, though high clouds
   and poorer boundary-layer moisture (per 18Z RNK sounding) have
   limited destabilization.  With low-level flow (and attendant warm
   advection) forecast to increase into the evening, there is a threat
   for the convection to persist.  Given the sufficient low-level and
   deep-layer shear across the area, these storms will have the
   potential to produce damaging winds, hail, and a tornado. Trends
   will be monitored through the evening, but a watch appears to be
   unlikely at this time.

   ..Jirak/Guyer.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   37968246 38258201 38258094 38437951 39007785 38357744
               37577755 37427861 37207996 37208091 37158158 37408235
               37968246 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN