Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 377

   Mesoscale Discussion 0377
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0941 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...Middle/northeast TN into southeast KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031441Z - 031615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Monitoring for storm intensification through the morning.
   Some threat for all severe hazards could evolve with time.

   DISCUSSION...Occasional supercell structures continue to be observed
   this morning with convection moving across middle/northeast TN. Thus
   far, these cells have generally stayed north of an outflow boundary
   draped across the region, though the cell currently south of
   Nashville is located in the immediate vicinity of this front. With
   some heating/destabilization ongoing south of the front, there will
   be some potential for storm intensification with cells that can
   remain rooted near the boundary, which may move northward through
   the day. 

   With MLCAPE expected to increase through the 500-1000 J/kg
   along/south of the front and favorable wind profiles expected to
   persist through the day, some threat for all severe hazards could
   evolve with time near the boundary, with an isolated hail and
   damaging wind threat north of the boundary. However, with generally
   modest large-scale ascent expected through the morning, the
   short-term severe threat and need for watch issuance remains
   uncertain.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   36248666 37098489 37358389 37178332 36978312 36878304
               36608303 36088384 35928449 35838494 35748547 35648610
               35648662 36248666 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN