Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 376

   Mesoscale Discussion 0376
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0855 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...South-central into southeast OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031355Z - 031530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe gusts and hail will spread
   northeastward this morning. The longevity of the morning threat
   remains uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Despite being elevated above an outflow-reinforced
   front draped across north TX, a bowing segment has recently produced
   several severe gusts ranging from 63-72 mph across south-central OK.
   This bowing segment is moving along the gradient of elevated
   buoyancy, with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and strong effective shear
   (greater than 50 kt) providing a favorable environment for
   maintenance of this bow as it moves east-northeastward. 

   Given its elevated nature and location near the gradient of
   favorable MUCAPE, the longevity of the severe threat with this
   bowing segment is uncertain. However, a threat for severe gusts and
   isolated hail through at least mid morning. If this storm cluster
   and bowing segment can keep pace with returning deeper moisture
   above the surface, then it could persist later into the morning with
   a continued severe threat.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34729700 35119641 35559522 34659475 34309476 33989611
               33909661 33989655 34279676 34729700 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN