Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 375

   Mesoscale Discussion 0375
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0638 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...north Texas and southeast OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106...

   Valid 031138Z - 031345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Elevated cells will continue to pose a large hail risk
   this morning across portions of north Texas into southeast Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of strong, elevated supercells across western
   north TX will continue to shift east through the morning. This
   activity is occurring in a warm advection regime atop a stalled
   surface boundary draped across north/north-central Texas eastward to
   the AR/LA border. Steep midlevel lapse rates are contributing to
   modest elevated instability, with MUCAPE values around 1000-2000
   J/kg noted in latest mesoanalysis. Additional cells may develop
   within this regime through the morning hours and large hail
   potential may persist beyond the 13z expiration time of Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 106. Some severe potential also could persist
   downstream of the current watch, though north and east extent is
   somewhat uncertain. A new watch, or a local watch extension will
   likely be needed in the next hour or so.

   ..Leitman.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33859877 34489576 34399464 33889441 32979495 32419639
               32189815 32349875 32749908 33369911 33859877 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN