Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 374

   Mesoscale Discussion 0374
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 AM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northern MS into Middle TN

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...

   Valid 030955Z - 031130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado risk may persist across portions of northern
   Mississippi into Middle Tennessee another few hours. A local watch
   extension may be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Occasionally intense cells exhibiting moderate rotation
   continue along the stalled surface boundary from northern MS into
   Middle TN early this morning. A supercell southwest of the Nashville
   area has recently shown increasing rotation over the past 20
   minutes. Wind profile data from GWX and HUN continue to show
   supercell wind profiles across the warm sector, while a narrow
   corridor of modest MLCAPE extends northeast across the MCD area.
   Convection may continue to be sustained in the warm advection regime
   along the surface boundary and within a favorably sheared
   environment such that tornado/severe potential could persist a few
   more hours. With Tornado Watch 104 set to expire at 11z, a local
   watch extension may be needed.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35688586 35098720 34968766 34558853 34568882 34638910
               34898920 35338855 36428625 36568555 36478504 36208510
               35688586 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN