Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 370

   Mesoscale Discussion 0370
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Areas affected...parts of wrn into middle TN...cntrl and ern
   KY...srn OH...nwrn W VA...swrn PA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 030405Z - 030600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe weather potential with a vigorous, organized
   convective system spreading toward the Allegheny Plateau, and into
   central Kentucky and middle Tennessee, may be slow to diminish
   overnight.  One or two additional severe weather watches might be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...To the northeast of the east central Kentucky
   Bluegrass, boundary-layer instability remains rather limited, and is
   not expected to improve much overnight.  However, the most intense
   south to southwesterly lower/mid-tropospheric jet core (including
   60-80+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer) is in the process of shifting
   northeast of the Mid South, toward the upper Ohio Valley.

   Although a leading MCV has recently become more ill-defined across
   western Ohio, several others continue to evolve within the the
   convective system trailing southwestward into the Mid South.  The
   severe weather potential is probably past peak, but the risk for
   potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of brief
   tornadoes may be slow to diminish overnight.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...
   MEG...

   LAT...LON   39248346 40438238 40948086 40537936 38088270 36538553
               35138902 39248346 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN