Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 347

   Mesoscale Discussion 0347
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0430 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Areas affected...northeast OK/southeast KS into southwest MO and
   northwest AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 020930Z - 021130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm and tornado potential will increase
   over the next few hours. Damaging gusts and few tornadoes will be
   possible through the morning hours and watch issuance is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A line of severe storms from southeast KS into
   southwest OK will continue to shift east ahead of a cold front over
   the next few hours. A moistening boundary layer, courtesy of strong
   southerly surface winds and a nearly 70 kt low level jet beneath
   steep midlevel lapse rates will support continued organized
   convection into southwest MO/northwest AR. Regional VWP data and
   RAP-based mesoanalysis shows large, looping hodographs across the
   region. While ongoing convection has largely remained linear, large
   SRH amid these supercell wind profiles will support embedded
   supercells and QLCS tornado potential in addition to severe/damaging
   gusts and hail. A tornado watch will likely be needed across
   portions of the MCD area within the next hour.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38059507 38389351 38379272 37909229 36899213 36389251
               35779347 35669435 35689491 35969514 38059507 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN