Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 346

   Mesoscale Discussion 0346
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Areas affected...portions of Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 020702Z - 020900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential, including the potential for a couple of
   strong tornadoes, will increase across portions of Oklahoma through
   early morning. A tornado watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A surface cold front oriented from central KS southwest
   to the Texas South Plains vicinity will continue to shift southeast
   through early morning. Ahead of the front, strong southerly
   low-level flow has allow deeper boundary-layer moisture to
   overspread the region (mid 60s F dewpoints) beneath an intense
   southwesterly low-level jet (near 70 kt). Steep midlevel lapse rates
   atop the moist boundary layer are contributing to strong instability
   (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE). A 03z RAOB from OUN did show increased capping
   near 850 mb compared to 00z. However, as forcing increases with the
   approach of the surface cold front, capping is expected to erode. 

   Latest IR satellite imagery and the Nighttime Microphysics RGB
   indicate increasing cumulus ahead of the advancing front.
   Additionally, HRRR trends over the past several hours consistently
   develop convection as the front impinges on deeper boundary-layer
   moisture across OK by 08z. Forecast soundings suggest that at least
   some potential for surface-based convection is possible. Given very
   large, looping low-level hodographs, tornadoes will be possible with
   any supercells or linear segments, in addition to damaging gusts and
   potential for very large hail. A tornado watch will likely be needed
   for portions of the MCD area.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35159911 35909856 36769794 36919751 37019578 36919517
               36669494 36219485 35969500 35569539 34419659 34219709
               34139799 34189868 34329931 34709934 35159911 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN