Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 345

   Mesoscale Discussion 0345
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 AM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern KS into northern and western MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 020627Z - 020830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase downstream
   from WW 92 across portions of eastern KS into northwest MO the next
   few hours. A tornado watch will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...An intense low-level jet near 75 kt between 1-2 km, as
   sampled by the KEAX VWP, coupled with strengthening surface winds
   with time will continue to bring increasing dewpoints northward the
   next few hours. Low 60s F dewpoints are noted across southeast KS,
   rapidly approaching the I-70 corridor. This will aid in increasing
   destabilization ahead of the eastward-advancing surface cold front
   oriented across northeast KS to south-central KS. A mix of linear
   convection and isolated supercells currently along the front will
   continue shifting east/northeast the next few hours, moving into
   northwest MO near 08z. The intense, vertically veering wind profiles
   will support robust convection capable of rotation (both with any
   supercells and within linear convection). Damaging gusts and a few
   tornadoes appear probable into the early morning hours, and a
   tornado watch will be needed for portions of the MCD area.

   ..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39669525 39799517 40069459 40109385 40119306 40039252
               39259243 38289306 37799391 37719471 37849508 38689505
               39669525 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN