Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 341

   Mesoscale Discussion 0341
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of central and northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 020045Z - 020245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
   with initial discrete storms in central/northwest Texas. It is
   unclear if severe coverage will warrant a watch, though trends are
   being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has developed ahead of the
   dryline in central/northwest Texas -- where steep boundary-lapse
   rates are intersecting the western edge of the warm/moist sector
   (upper 50s/lower 60s F dewpoints). Weak large-scale forcing for
   ascent and 40-50 kt of cross-boundary 0-6 km shear (per DYX VWP)
   will support discrete supercellular structures, aided by around 2000
   J/kg MLCAPE. Initial storms will mainly pose a risk of isolated
   large hail and locally severe gusts. However, if these storms can
   persist long enough and track eastward into the increasing low-level
   shear/SRH, the tornado threat would also increase. The overall
   coverage and evolution of storms remains unclear, though trends are
   being monitored for a possible watch.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 04/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32369948 33039928 33319883 33379826 33309783 33079767
               32639772 32099822 31319944 31449993 31660001 32369948 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN