Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 338

   Mesoscale Discussion 0338
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0634 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

   Areas affected...Far north-central Oklahoma into far south-central
   Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 91...

   Valid 012334Z - 020100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 91 continues.

   SUMMARY...Initial supercells will pose a risk for very large hail
   and locally severe gusts. The tornado threat should gradually
   increase with northeastward extent.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has developed along the
   northwestern edge of the partially modified Gulf moisture (dewpoints
   in the upper 50s to near 60 F). The VNX VWP depicts a long hodograph
   (around 80 kt of 0-6 km shear) with modest low-level clockwise
   curvature/streamwise vorticity. This will support isolated/discrete
   (potentially splitting) supercells with a risk of very large hail
   and locally severe gusts initially, given fairly weak large-scale
   forcing for ascent. With time, a strengthening low-level jet will
   yield very large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (effective
   SRH upwards of 600 m2/s2) -- highly supportive of a transition to
   dominant right-moving supercells. While low-level moisture is
   somewhat modest, the aforementioned wind profile and
   discrete/semi-discrete mode would certainly favor an increase in
   tornado potential, some of which may be strong.

   ..Weinman.. 04/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36369812 36609820 36959810 37299785 37509750 37559685
               37399647 37089631 36739639 36349721 36259777 36369812 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN