Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 285

   Mesoscale Discussion 0285
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0635 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of north and central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 292335Z - 300130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe risk will increase in coverage over the next
   few hours. Primary concerns are large hail and severe winds gusts.
   Trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a north/south-oriented
   dryline extending across portions of north and central Texas, where
   isolated thunderstorms are evolving. These initial
   high-based/isolated storms will be capable of producing large hail
   and locally severe gusts, given steep deep-layer lapse rates and
   around 40 kt of effective shear -- characterized by a mostly
   straight hodograph. With time, deep-layer ascent accompanying the
   left exit region of an upper jet streak will overspread the dryline,
   favoring increasing thunderstorm development into this evening.
   Large hail will still be a concern, though a tendency for upscale
   growth into a cluster of storms will favor an increasing severe-wind
   risk as well. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch
   issuance.

   ..Weinman/Mosier.. 03/29/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31729924 32589870 33259853 33729824 33959782 33959734
               33819673 33499644 32889652 32109704 31039810 30719877
               30679931 31019983 31269976 31729924 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN