Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 262

   Mesoscale Discussion 0262
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251755Z - 252030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible
   mainly this afternoon into the early evening (3-7pm).

   DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum
   over the shelf waters to the west of the Everglades/Keys moving east
   over the region this afternoon.  Visible-satellite imagery shows a
   cumulus field destabilizing from near Lake Okeechobee southward,
   where temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 80s with 68-70 deg F
   dewpoints.  Modifying the 12 UTC Miami raob for current conditions
   yields around 1700 J/kg MLCAPE with minimal CINH.  Although flow in
   the lowest 2 km is weak (below 15 kt), westerly flow increasing from
   25 kt to 40 kt in the 3-7 km layer, is resulting in a wind profile
   that will support some storm organization---mainly in the form of
   multicells.

   Convection-allowing model guidance (12 UTC HREF and recent
   time-lagged HRRR runs) show greater storm coverage beginning in the
   3-5pm period.  An initial threat for a stronger storm over the
   greater Miami area will gradually expand as storms develop
   north/northwest in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee later this
   afternoon.  Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-13 to -12 deg C)
   will support hail potential with the stronger cells.  Steep
   surface-850 mb lapse rates with the more intense water-loaded cores
   will also yield a risk for damaging gusts (55-70 mph) with the
   stronger storms.  This activity will likely diminish during the
   evening as the boundary layer slowly stabilizes and/or storms move
   offshore.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 03/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   25308043 25408058 26688114 27478119 27708093 27868036
               26747994 25448009 25308025 25308043 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN