Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 251

   Mesoscale Discussion 0251
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

   Areas affected...West-central Kentucky into middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 58...

   Valid 200056Z - 200300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado and damaging wind threat for the next few
   hours will likely be focused across parts of central to western
   Kentucky and into northern middle Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop southward along and
   just ahead of the dryline across western KY into western TN. Weak
   storm motions off the boundary are favoring slow upscale growth into
   semi-discrete cells and clusters, but several shallow, but
   intensifying, discrete cells have recently developed across middle
   TN ahead of the developing line. The deeper/more intense cells are
   showing signs of organized mid-level mesocyclones, suggesting that
   they are beginning to realize the strongly sheared environment.
   Recent VWP observations from KOHX show 1-2 km winds increasing to
   60-70 knots as the low-level jet strengthens. Middle TN is likely on
   the southern periphery of the developing low-level jet, but as
   storms move north into the stronger low-level flow/higher SRH
   environment they may continue to organize and pose a more robust
   tornado/damaging wind threat in the coming hours across parts of
   west-central KY and northern middle TN. To the west, the continued
   organization of the squall line may favor and increasing damaging
   wind threat downstream. It remains unclear quickly onset of
   nocturnal cooling and slowly diminishing buoyancy will offset this
   potential.

   ..Moore.. 03/20/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36528818 37178769 38008719 38248680 38378617 38228573
               37948565 37468573 36908581 36418606 36058633 35818668
               35638706 35738752 35848785 36028812 36208823 36528818