Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 237

   Mesoscale Discussion 0237
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0520 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern New York into northeast Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54...55...

   Valid 162220Z - 170015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 54, 55
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds remain possible as a line of
   storms moves into eastern New York state and northeast Pennsylvania.
   However, this line is expected to gradually weaken through the
   evening hours. Watch issuance downstream of WW 55 is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radars across NY and PA continue to show
   strong velocities within/behind a broken line of storms as it moves
   east/northeast and out of WW 55. This broken line continues to move
   out of the axis of sustainable buoyancy, and a downtrend in
   lightning counts has been noted over the past hour, indicative of an
   overall weakening trend. However, recent GOES imagery and lightning
   data have shown occasional transient updraft pulses embedded within
   the line, likely where storm-scale dynamic pressure perturbations
   are contributing to locally stronger updrafts. Surface observations
   within the past hour have measured gusts in the vicinity of these
   stronger segments between 40-45 knots, and the KBGM VWP recently
   sampled 50 knot winds near 1 km with the passage of the line. The
   overall weakening trend is expected to continue as the line migrates
   into a more stable air mass so watch issuance is not expected, but
   sporadic damaging gusts associated with these transient updrafts
   pulses will remain possible in the near term (next 1-2 hours) across
   eastern NY and northeast PA.

   ..Moore.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   41207628 41487615 42087556 42467537 43097510 43537486
               43877485 44187489 44547501 44707506 44887501 45017486
               44987445 44887404 44567366 44207356 43467352 42837373
               42137413 41537460 40977514 40957565 41047602 41207628