Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 233

   Mesoscale Discussion 0233
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...central New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55...

   Valid 162002Z - 162130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The damaging wind gusts will persist for a few more hours
   across central New York before the threat wanes.

   DISCUSSION...A well-developed line of storms has produced numerous
   reports of damaging wind gusts and some measured severe wind gusts
   across western/central Pennsylvania and western New York. Some weak
   instability remains across central New York which may be sufficient
   to sustain these storms for a few more hours. Synoptic winds are
   gusting to 35-40 knots ahead of this line of storms and an 85 knot
   low-level jet is present on the BGM VWP around 2km. Therefore any
   surface based convection will likely have the potential for severe
   wind gusts this afternoon. Cloud cover is extensive ahead of this
   line of storms and the boundary layer will start to cool in the next
   1 to 2 hours. Therefore, this line of storms is probably past its
   peak and should start to weaken in the next 1 to 2 hours. Severe
   thunderstorm watch 55 has been expanded ahead of these storms to
   cover this threat for that time period. While some local extensions
   of watch 55 may be necessary, no downstream watch is anticipated.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42307415 41967504 41907614 41977696 42387734 42877744
               43327738 43397701 43457658 43617642 43647609 43657527
               43547461 42987427 42307415