Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 230

   Mesoscale Discussion 0230
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...western into central New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55...

   Valid 161742Z - 161915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch was recently issues across
   western New York for an increasing damaging wind threat.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms is starting to develop over
   eastern Lake Erie. This is expected to become more intense across
   western New York over the next 1 to 2 hours as it moves off the lake
   and into an airmass featuring temperatures in the low to mid 70s
   across western New York. Instability is expected to remain weak
   (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE), but should be sufficient for some damaging
   wind threat as this line of storms moves east.

   The severe potential will decrease substantially at some point late
   this afternoon as the boundary layer starts to cool. Therefore, it
   is unclear how far east the severe threat will persist across
   central New York. A watch has recently been issued for western New
   York to address this threat with later areal expansions into central
   New York possibly needed.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42217933 42847898 43337890 43437781 43337718 43557652
               43657618 43397567 42447570 41997611 41907787 41887920
               42217933