Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 229

   Mesoscale Discussion 0229
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1213 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

   Areas affected...portions of the eastern Carolinas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

   Valid 161713Z - 161845Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 51. A
   couple of additional damaging gusts or tornadoes cannot be ruled
   out. A WW replacement may be needed for eastern NC pending favorable
   convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Loosely organized thunderstorm clusters across central
   NC continue to move eastward as a thunderstorm cluster over eastern
   SC approaches the shoreline. These storms are preceded by scant
   buoyancy (i.e. barely over 100 J/kg SB/MLCAPE, or 500 J/kg MUCAPE),
   which has likely limited severe potential thus far. However, strong
   flow aloft will continue over the eastern Carolinas as the low-level
   jet axis remains centered along the Carolina shoreline as the 500 mb
   wind maxima approaches from the west. As such, any robust updrafts
   that manage to become organized and robust may be accompanied by a
   threat for a few damaging gusts or tornadoes. The main question at
   the moment is appreciable coverage of organized storms given such
   scant buoyancy. Tornado Watch 51 is set to expire at 18Z, so a new
   Tornado Watch may be necessary under the condition that organized
   storms become apparent.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33677993 35107875 35747851 36547775 36757734 36977662
               37007617 36947593 36607584 36327574 35897555 35447546
               35077594 34677657 34507722 34057791 33827841 33577895
               33507942 33677993